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UK Commercial General Insurance 2006
Market Report, March 2007, 3596  €


Description

IntroductionThis report is an indispensable guide to the commercial general insurance sector in the UK.
It focuses on group accident and health, general liability, motor, pecuniary loss and commercial property markets.
The report includes market sizing information, competitor premiums and Datamonitor's unique forecasts of premium income by line of business.ScopeGWP growth and profitability data for the key sectors of the commercial insurance market Discussion of the major issues and trends shaping the commercial sector Loss, expense and combined ratio information for the major lines of business GWP forecasts for the major commercial up to 2011HighlightsRetailers and affinity groups continue to occupy only a small space in the commercial insurance distribution landscape.
While organizations within this category have had major success in selling personal lines insurance, they are hampered in commercial lines because of the clients' need for advice during the purchase In December 2006, Australian insurer Insurance Australia Group (IAG) bought the Equity Group, which consists of Equity Red Star and Equity Insurance Brokers.
imarket added two new carriers to the system in 2005 and 2006.
In August 2005, NIG signed up to imarket stating that it would initially offer SME packages and motor trader cover.Reasons to PurchaseDevelop your business planning using Datamonitor's GWP forecasts and analysis for the major commercial lines of business Benchmark the underwriting performance of the insurers featured Understand the key issues affecting the distribution of commercial insurance products


Sommaire
 
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
Profits slipped in the UK general insurance market in 2005, as soft market conditions took their toll on most lines of business 3
Soft market conditions were evident in many lines of business in 2005 3
The motor market led the decline with a reduction of 1.5 per cent 3
Property and accident and health also went into decline 3
Liability and pecuniary loss continued to improve 3
Commercial insurance is largely distributed through intermediaries, however, there are signs of growth in other channels 4
Brokers still dominate the distribution of commercial lines insurance 4
Direct insurers hold a relatively small share of the commercial market 4
Banks and building societies remain small players in the commercial insurance market 4
The top 10 commercial insurers control almost 70 per cent of the market 5
The three largest commercial insurers RSA, Norwich Union and Zurich all have substantial property, commercial motor and liability accounts 5
Royal & SunAlliance has large motor, property and liability accounts, and saw growth in Risk Solutions and marine in 2005, amongst other areas 5
Norwich Union also has large property, motor and liability accounts and focuses on small and mid-sized businesses 6
Zurich's largest line was liability, which was hit by strong competition 6
The total commercial market will grow at a steady pace driven largely by the commercial liability sector, while group accident and health and commercial pecuniary loss are set to see steadier growth 6
The commercial liability market and the commercial pecuniary loss market are forecast to see the fastest growth between 2006 and 2011 6
Group accident and health and commercial motor are forecast to see steady growth 7
CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION 24
What is this report about? 24
Who is the target reader? 24
How to use this report 25
CHAPTER 3 MARKET CONTEXT 26
Introduction 26
Profits slipped in the UK general insurance market in 2005, as soft market conditions took their toll on most lines of business 26
Soft market conditions were evident in many lines of business in 2005 26
The motor market led the decline with a reduction of 1.5 per cent 26
Property and accident and health also went into decline 26
Liability and pecuniary loss continued to improve 27
The commercial market suffered more than the personal market in 2005 28
Commercial property and commercial motor led the commercial GWP contraction 28
The general insurance market's underwriting profit began to decline in 2005, as competition took its toll on most sectors 31
The accident and health market declined in 2005, driven by a large fall in accident sector premium income, in spite of robust growth in the group health sector 34
Group accident and health GWP increased, while the individual sector stagnated 34
The group health market drove the growth in the group accident and health sector 36
The accident and health market recorded an underwriting profit for the sixth consecutive year in 2005, but profitability declined 38
The proportion of the accident and health market written outside the company market has increased as Lloyd's and others have increased GWP, while company players have decreased 39
The liability market achieved marginal growth, and came very close to achieving underwriting profitability in 2005 41
Competition took its toll on the liability market, though increased penetration rates in some lines secured marginal growth overall 41
The liability market almost moved into a profit in 2005 due to strong NWP growth 43
Lloyd's and non-company players decrease in market share, but maintain a significant role in the liability market 45
The commercial and private motor markets contracted in 2005 as soft market conditions persisted 47
Sustained high levels of competition and sliding premium rates led to declines in GWP for both private and commercial motor 47
The fleet market held up in 2005, while commercial vehicle recorded the worst decline of any motor line 49
The motor market's underwriting losses increased in 2005 due to the poor performance of the private sector 50
The commercial motor market returned a much reduced underwriting profit in 2005 52
Lloyd's insurers have continued to reduce exposure to the motor market in 2005, a move pursued since 2001 53
The pecuniary loss market grew rapidly in 2005 and although profitability fell, it still returned a healthy underwriting result 55
The pecuniary loss market was worth £5.5 billion in 2005 55
Although the underwriting result dropped in 2005, pecuniary loss remains a profitable line 56
The market share and premium income of non-ABI companies and Lloyd's syndicates grew in 2005 58
Following a significant slowdown in 2004, the property market went into decline in 2005 due to the performance of commercial property 60
The market's overall decline resulted from a 7.5 per cent fall in commercial property GWP 60
Property underwriting profits fell slightly in 2005, as the effect of increased competition began to have an impact 62
Profitability declined as growth in total outgoings outstripped growth in NWP 62
The commercial property underwriting result fell by 38.6 per cent in 2005 64
Lloyd's and other non-ABI companies accounted for an increasing share of the property insurance market in 2005 65
CHAPTER 4 CUSTOMER FOCUS 68
Commercial insurance is largely distributed through intermediaries, however, there are signs of growth in other channels 68
Brokers still dominate the distribution of commercial lines insurance 68
Independent intermediaries are still the major distribution channel within commercial lines insurance 68
Direct insurers hold a relatively small share of the commercial market, however, growth is expected to pick up in terms of policy numbers 68
Direct insurers hold a small share of the commercial insurance market 68
Insurers are expecting to see growth in the direct channel 69
The growth of the direct channel will be limited by low average premium spends and buying behaviour 69
Banks and building societies remain small players in the commercial insurance market 70
There is potential for retailers and affinity groups to grow their market share, however, this is limited by the need for advice 71
imarket makes interactions between insurers and brokers more efficient and further progress is expected in the coming years 73
imarket is an internet portal for brokers that allows multiple quotes to be generated from one application form 73
imarket added two new carriers in 2005 and 2006 74
Further integration with software houses would benefit imarket 74
CHAPTER 5 COMPETITIVE DYNAMICS 76
Introduction 76
Merger and acquisition interest among insurers was muted in 2006, but three new start-up underwriting agencies entered the market 76
M&A activity was muted among insurers, though failed bids and speculation show insurers' continued interest 76
A few deals were made in 2006 involving Lloyd's insurers 77
Acquisition activity has been more common among brokers 78
Three new start-up underwriting agencies entered the commercial insurance market in 2006, targeting the SME sector 79
Start-up ABC Insurance was bought by Liverpool Victoria 79
M4 Underwriting started writing business in June 2006 backed by Allianz 80
Start-up Arista Insurance will also target the SME market 80
A continued focus on cost reductions led to job cuts and offshoring in 2006 80
2006 saw a number of high profile UK job cuts as insurers continued to move jobs abroad 80
Brokers are also showing interest in offshoring 81
The top 10 commercial insurers control almost 70 per cent of the market 82
The three largest commercial insurers RSA, Norwich Union and Zurich all have substantial property, commercial motor and liability accounts 82
Royal & SunAlliance has large motor, property and liability accounts, and saw growth in Risk Solutions and marine in 2005, amongst other areas 82
Norwich Union also has large property, motor and liability accounts and focuses on small and mid-sized businesses 83
Zurich's largest line was liability, which was hit by strong competition 83
AXA and Allianz emphasize the strong competition in commercial lines, but saw growth in selected areas 84
AXA experienced decreases in liability, but saw growth in group health 84
Allianz also found liability challenging 84
New Hampshire, BUPA and NFU Mutual are specialist commercial lines insurers 85
New Hampshire focuses on liability insurance 85
BUPA is exclusively a health insurer 85
NFU writes only liability and motor insurance in commercial lines 85
ACE and QBE were number eight and ten in the ranking of UK commercial insurers in 2005 85
ACE was ranked 8th among commercial insurers in 2005 and focuses almost exclusively on liability insurance in the UK 85
QBE is the 10th largest UK commercial insurer and focuses on commercial motor and liability insurance 86
Among commercial insurers ranked 11-20 some insurers are growing quickly, suggesting that they may one day threaten the position of the top 10 87
For most of the top 10 commercial insurers commercial business is the most important line 91
The commercial book dominates for all but one of the top 10 insurers that focus on both commercial and personal lines 91
Two of the top 10 commercial lines have no personal book to speak of 92
Norwich Union is the only insurer among the top 10 for which personal lines dominates 92
Profitability declined in the accident and health market, driven by increases in loss ratios in particular 94
Changes in FSA reporting categories have affected accident and health ratio comparisons 94
Many accident and health insurers saw loss ratios increase in 2005, but a clear divide is emerging between PMI and accident insurance specialists 95
Norwich Union, BCWA and Legal & General all recorded double digit loss ratio growth 95
Stonebridge, SimplyHealth and Fortis achieved impressive loss ratio reductions 96
Expense ratios rose by 3.0 per cent in 2005, with accident specialists driving this increase 98
While PMI providers succeeded in reducing their expense ratios, accident and travel insurance specialists more often suffered an increase 99
PMI providers BUPA and WPA had the best expense ratios in 2005 99
Norwich Union, Legal & General and New Hampshire achieved the best expense ratio reductions 99
BCWA and Stonebridge recorded large expense ratio increases 100
The combined ratio of the top A&H providers rose by 5.3 per cent in 2005, with the majority of PMI and accident providers contributing to this performance 102
The companies with the best ratio metrics were from the accident and travel sectors, not the PMI market 102
New Hampshire, Fortis and SimplyHealth all made impressive combined ratio improvements in 2005 102
BCWA had a terrible year in 2005, however GEFI, Clinicare and Groupama all suffered big combined ratio increases as well 103
Liability insurers recorded improvements in profitability in 2005, as many insurers combined premium income growth with a reduction in combined ratio 105
Changes in FSA reporting categories have affected liability ratio comparisons 105
Over half of the top 20 liability insurers increased their premium income in 2005, with the majority also experiencing reductions in loss ratio 105
Many companies combined increases in premium income with improvements in loss ratio 105
Only three liability insurers saw an increase in loss ratio in 2005 106
The largest liability insurers generally have loss ratios of around 60 per cent, while smaller insurers have more varied loss ratios 107
The majority of liability insurers saw increases in their expense ratios in 2005 108
XL and Catlin saw the highest increases in expense ratios in 2005, while many other insurers saw smaller increases 109
However, a few insurers bucked this trend and managed to reduce their expense ratio 109
Over half of the top 20 liability insurers improved their profitability in 2005, athough reporting has had an impact on these figures 111
Of the top 20 liability insurers 13 returned combined ratios below 100 per cent in 2005 112
Some companies, however, still suffer from unprofitable liability books 112
Soft market conditions led to both falling premiums and reductions in profitability for many of the top 20 motor insurers 115
The loss ratio of the top 20 motor insurers increased in 2005 and soft market conditions were evident as many companies suffered declining premium income 115
Many insurers saw worsening loss ratios and reductions in income, suggesting that some have accepted reduced premiums 115
Three companies saw a decline in premium income but improved loss ratio 117
Six companies managed to improve their loss ratios while growing their motor books 117
First Alternative was the only top 20 company that combined an increase in premium income with a growing loss ratio 118
The expense ratio of the top 20 motor insurers saw a small deterioration in 2005 120
Only a few insurers saw substantial changes to their expense ratios in 2005 121
Soft market conditions led many insurers with a combined ratio already over 100 per cent to suffer further reductions in profitability 123
11 of the top 20 motor insurers failed to return an underwriting profit in 2005 123
Many companies combined increasing unprofitability with falling premium income, suggesting that some players have cut their premiums to maintain market share 124
11 of the top 20 returned an underwriting loss and seven of these further increased their combined ratios in 2005 124
Nine companies recorded underwriting profits in 2005, with five of these seeing improvements on their 2004 results 126
Several players have dealt well with the soft cycle so far and are set to continue riding the cycle in the future 126
Pecuniary loss is a profitable line with an average combined ratio below 100 per cent however, high expense ratios are a problem for a sub-group of insurer 130
Changes in FSA reporting categories have affected pecuniary loss ratio comparisons 130
In general the loss ratio for pecuniary loss is lower than other lines 130
The influence of the expense ratio or the loss ratio on pecuniary loss insurers' profitability varies depending on their main line of business 131
Insurers that mainly write personal creditor business have low loss ratios and high expense ratios 131
Insurers that specialize in commercial pecuniary loss generally have low expense ratios 132
The remainder of the top 20, with expense ratios around 40-60 per cent, underwrite a variety of pecuniary loss lines 132
Just over half of the top 20 pecuniary loss insurers recorded underwriting profits in 2005, making it a profitable business overall 134
Pecuniary loss is a profitable business for many insurers 134
However, a group of companies struggled to secure a profit 135
Property insurance operating conditions improved slightly in 2005, although many players saw their combined ratios increase 136
The loss ratio of the top 20 property insurers improved in 2005 136
Nine of the top 20 actually recorded an increase in loss ratio, with significant increases from several players 137
Ecclesiastical, Direct Line and Allianz all recorded large loss ratio increases 137
St. Andrew's and Norwich Union all achieved big reductions in loss ratio, going against the market trend of rising claims costs 138
Liverpool Victoria's loss ratio was the worst of the property sector's top 20 players 138
The expense ratio of the top 20 property insurers increased by 1.8 percentage points in 2005 140
Direct writers and mutual insurance companies had the best expense ratios 141
CIS, Royal & SunAlliance and Zurich all saw significant increases in expense ratios 141
Lloyds TSB and NIG achieved large reductions in their expense ratios 142
The combined ratio of the top 20 property insurers fell marginally by 0.4 per cent in 2005, driven by the performance of just under half of this peer group 144
11 of the top 20 property insurers recorded an increase in combined ratio 145
Reflecting softer market conditions, Legal & General moved into an underwriting loss 145
Direct Line, Allianz and Ecclesiastical saw the biggest increase in combined ratio 145
Lloyds TSB, St. Andrew's and Norwich Union all achieved double digit figure combined ratio reductions 146
CHAPTER 6 FUTURE DECODED 148
Introduction 148
The total commercial market will grow at a steady pace driven largely by the commercial liability sector, while group accident and health and commercial pecuniary loss are set to see steadier growth 148
The commercial liability market and the commercial pecuniary loss market are forecast to see the fastest growth between 2006 and 2011 148
Group accident and health and commercial motor are forecast to see steady growth 149
The accident and health market will record slow growth, as the group sector continues to outperform the individual sector 150
The group sector will manage to sustain marginal policyholder number growth, while increases in premium inflation are recorded 150
The group accident and health market is forecast to grow by a compound annual rate of 4.8 per cent between 2006 and 2011 152
Liability is expected to remain competitive until the end of 2007, after which GWP growth is forecast to pick up 154
Competition continued to dominate the liability market in 2006, putting pressure on premium rates 154
The turn of the cycle is expected in late 2007 155
Commercial motor GWP is expected to recover in the second half of 2007, with stronger growth to come 157
Rate increases are expected to lead to an improvement in operating conditions in the commercial motor market 157
The commercial motor market is forecast to reach a value of £4.1 billion by 2011 158
The commercial pecuniary loss market is forecast to grow to a value of £1.7 billion by 2011 160
The forecast for pecuniary loss is based on historical trends 160
The commercial pecuniary loss market is forecast to grow by 10.0 per cent on a compound annual basis between 2006 and 2011 160
The commercial property market is seeing price competition, however it is expected to turn in 2008 and reach a value of £5.5 billion by 2011 162
The commercial property market is seeing intense competition 162
Datamonitor forecasts that the commercial property insurance market will reach £5.5 billion by 2011 163
CHAPTER 7 APPENDIX 166
Methodology 166
FSA Return changes 166
Major changes in FSA Return categories and their impact 166
Market size 167
Changes in market size information 167
Market size methodology 167
Lloyd's players and underwriting result figures 168
2005 definitions for lines of business 168
Accident & health 168
Medical expenses 168
HealthCare cash plan 168
Travel 169
Personal accident or sickness 169
Motor 169
Total private motor 169
Total commercial motor 169
Private motor comprehensive 169
Private motor non-comprehensive 170
Motorcycle 170
Fleets 171
Commercial vehicles (non-fleet) 171
Property 171
Total commercial property 172
Household and domestic all risks. 172
Consequential loss (i.e. business interruption) 172
Financial/Pecuniary loss business 172
Total personal financial loss business 173
Total commercial financial loss business 173
Legal expenses 173
Fidelity and contract guarantee 173
Liability business 173
Employers liability (including the employers liability part of mixed liability packages but excluding mixed commercial packages) 174
Professional indemnity (including directors' and officers' liability and errors and omissions liability) 174
Public and products liability 174
Mixed commercial package 174
Total personal 175
Total commercial 175
Pre-2005 definitions for lines of business 175
Accident and health 176
Individual accident and health 176
Group accident and health 176
General liability 177
Motor 177
Pecuniary loss 178
Total pecuniary loss figures 178
Property 178
Definitions of ABI terms 180
Brokers 180
National brokers 180
Other intermediaries & brokers 180
Chain brokers & telebrokers 180
Direct 181
Other company agents 181
Utilities/retailers/affinity groups 181
Company staff 181
Banks/building societies 181
Written premiums 181
Current readings 181
Future readings 182
Do you need more information? 182
Datamonitor Financial Services Consulting 182
SPP writing team 184
List of Tables
Table 1: Total general insurance GWP by line of business 2001-5 28
Table 2: Commercial general insurance market GWP and year-on-year growth, split by sector 2001-5 31
Table 3: Total general insurance underwriting result, by line of business, 1995-2005 33
Table 4: Accident & health GWP split between individual and group, 2001-5 35
Table 5: Accident and health GWP by sector, 2001-5 37
Table 6: Total accident and health underwriting result, 1995-2005 39
Table 7: Accident and Health market GWP split by UK company market players and Lloyd's/Non-company market, 1995-2005 41
Table 8: General liability market GWP split by line of business, 2001-5 43
Table 9: Total general liability underwriting result, 1995-2005 45
Table 10: General liability GWP split between ABI members and Lloyd's / Other, 1995-2005 47
Table 11: Motor insurance GWP split between private and commercial business, 2001-5 48
Table 12: Commercial motor insurance GWP split by line, 2001-5 50
Table 13: Total motor underwriting account, 2001-5 51
Table 14: Commercial motor underwriting account, 1995-2005 53
Table 15: Motor GWP split between ABI members, Lloyd's / Other, 1995-2005 55
Table 16: Pecuniary loss market GWP by line of business, 2001-5 56
Table 17: Pecuniary loss underwriting account, 2001-5 58
Table 18: Pecuniary loss GWP split between ABI members and Lloyd's / Other, 1995-2005 60
Table 19: Property insurance GWP split between household and commercial business, 2001-5 62
Table 20: Property underwriting account, 1995-2005 63
Table 21: Commercial property underwriting result, 1995-2005 65
Table 22: Property GWP split between ABI members and Lloyd's / Other, 1995-2005 67
Table 23: Market share of distribution channels in the commercial general insurance market, 2002-5 73
Table 24: Top 10 commercial competitors by GWP and market share, 2005 87
Table 25: GWP of selected fast growing commercial insurance players ranked 11-20 91
Table 26: Split between commercial and personal business for the top 10 commercial insurers, 2005 94
Table 27: Premium income compared to loss ratio, top 20 A&H insurers, 2004-5 98
Table 28: Expense ratio of the top 20 A&H insurers, 2004-5 101
Table 29: Premium income compared to combined ratio, top 20 A&H insurers, 2004-5 104
Table 30: Loss ratio compared to premium income for the top 20 liability insurers, 2004-5 108
Table 31: Expense ratio compared to premium income for the top 20 liability insurers, 2004-5 111
Table 32: Combined ratio compared to premium income for the top 20 liability insurers, 2004-5 114
Table 33: Loss ratio compared to premium income for the top 20 motor insurers, 2004-5 120
Table 34: Expense ratio compared to premium income for the top 20 motor insurers, 2004-5 123
Table 35: Premium income compared to combined ratio for the top 20 motor insurers, 2004-5 129
Table 36: Loss and expense ratios compared to GWP for the top 20 pecuniary loss insurers, 2005 134
Table 37: Combined ratio compared to GWP for the top 20 pecuniary loss insurers, 2005 136
Table 38: Premium income compared to loss ratio, top 20 property insurers, 2004-5 140
Table 39: Expense ratio of the top 20 property insurers, 2004-5 144
Table 40: Premium income compared to combined ratio, top 20 property insurers, 2004-5 147
Table 41: Forecast commercial general insurance GWP, 2001-11f 150
Table 42: Group accident and health GWP forecast, 2001-11 154
Table 43: Forecast general liability GWP, 2001-11 157
Table 44: Commercial motor market GWP forecast. 2001-2011f 159
Table 45: GWP forecast for commercial pecuniary loss, 2001-11 162
Table 46: Forecast commercial property GWP, 2001-11f 165
List of Figures
Figure 1: Soft market conditions were evident in many lines in 2005 27
Figure 2: Commercial motor and property saw declines in GWP in 2005 29
Figure 3: In 2005, group accident and health grew faster than the historical five year trend, while commercial property fell well below 30
Figure 4: The underwriting profit of the general insurance market deteriorated in 2005 as the market slipped off its peak 33
Figure 5: The group accident and health sector picked up in 2005, recording strong GWP growth 35
Figure 6: Individual and group accident, and 'other' accident and health business GWP fell in 2005 37
Figure 7: The accident and health underwriting result declined in 2005, but the market still returned a comfortable profit 38
Figure 8: Lloyd's and other non-ABI companies win market share from the company market and account for the accident and health market's expansion 40
Figure 9: The liability market achieved moderate growth, in spite of a decline in employers' liability 42
Figure 10: The underwriting result for general liability has improved sharply since 2001 44
Figure 11: Company players won market share from Lloyd's players as the liability market saw little growth 46
Figure 12: Both private and commercial motor GWP continued to decline and have stagnated since 2001 48
Figure 13: The performance of the commercial motor market's sub sectors diverged in 2005 49
Figure 14: Motor underwriting losses increased in 2005 51
Figure 15: Underwriting profits suffer in the commercial motor market in 2005 52
Figure 16: Lloyd's has continued to reduce exposure to motor, with some former Lloyd's players writing from offshore locations accounting for the increase in other 54
Figure 17: Pecuniary loss is a profitable line, and the profit recorded in 2005 is near the record for the decade 57
Figure 18: The majority of pecuniary loss insurance is underwritten by ABI members 59
Figure 19: Commercial property GWP declined in 2005, having slowed significantly in 2004 61
Figure 20: Profits fell slightly in 2005, as the effect of increased competition began to have an impact 63
Figure 21: The commercial property insurance underwriting result fell by over a third in 2005 64
Figure 22: The vast majority of property business remains with ABI companies but the amount written outside the company market has grown 66
Figure 23: National brokers dominate the distribution of commercial insurance 72
Figure 24: imarket generates a number of quotes, while the user only has to input the risk details once 74
Figure 25: The top 10 commercial insurers together accounted for 68.2 per cent of the market in 2005 86
Figure 26: There are some fast growing commercial insurers in the group ranked 11-20 90
Figure 27: Commercial business was more important than personal business for most of the top 10 commercial insurers in 2005 93
Figure 28: Many PMI players in the accident and health sector recorded an increase in their loss ratio 97
Figure 29: Expense ratio changes varied in the accident and health sector in 2005, but many PMI providers' ratios deteriorated slightly 100
Figure 30: Most liability insurers achieved improvements in loss ratio in 2005 and many also saw their premium income grow 107
Figure 31: The majority of the top 20 liability insurers saw increases in their expense ratios in 2005 110
Figure 32: The majority of liability insurers improved their combined ratios in 2005 113
Figure 33: Softening market conditions clearly affected the loss ratio of the top motor insurers 119
Figure 34: Most motor insurers saw only relatively small changes to their expense ratios in 2005 122
Figure 35: The four largest motor insurers have combined ratios below the top 20 average 128
Figure 36: Pecuniary loss insurers generally have low loss ratios, but expense ratios vary by line of business 133
Figure 37: On average property insurers increased premium income in 2005, but also saw their loss ratios rise 139
Figure 38: With the exception of a few companies like Lloyds TSB, NIG and Ecclesiastical, most property insurance providers saw expense ratios rise in 2005 143
Figure 39: Key to the relative importance of forecast variables 148
Figure 40: The total commercial insurance market is expected to grow between 2006 and 2011 149
Figure 41: Key variables influencing GWP in the accident and health market, 2006f-11 151
Figure 42: The group accident and health market is forecast to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 4.8% between 2006 and 2011 153
Figure 43: Key variables affecting liability GWP, 2006-11 155
Figure 44: The liability market is expected to see strong growth between 2008 and 2010 156
Figure 45: Key variables affecting commercial motor GWP, 2006e-11f 158
Figure 46: GWP is forecast to begin growing again in 2007 as the motor market recovers 159
Figure 47: Commercial pecuniary loss is forecast to grow by a compound annual growth rate of 10.0 per cent between 2006 and 2011 161
Figure 48: Key variables affecting commercial property GWP, 2006e-11f 163
Figure 49: Commercial property GWP will decline until 2008 when rates are expected to rise again 164
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