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The US Diet Market Outlook To 2008: Future profit opportunities for low carb and other fast growth diets
Market Report, February 2005, 1224  €


Description

The weight loss industry is a robust and diverse market within the United States, comprising dozens of eating regimens, dieting support groups, supplements, food products, meal replacements, books, and videos.
As the prevalence of overweight and obesity continue to rise in the United States, greater numbers of individuals are developing health complications associated with those conditions, creating an ever-growing market for these services and products.
44% of the population is actively trying to lose weight.
Of the remaining 56%, 32% can be classified as Healthy Eaters, while the remainder are not particularly concerned with their eating habits.

Sommaire
 
Table of Contents
 
The US Diet Market Outlook To 2008
 
Future Profit Opportunities For Low Carb And Other
 
Fast Growth Diets
 
Executive Summary 12
 
The US Diet Market Landscape 12
 
Drivers and Dynamics of The Diet Market 13
 
The US Diet Consumer 13
 
Competitive Analysis of Major Low Carb Brands 14
 
Medical & Regulatory Environment 14
 
The Future of Low Carb Dieting and Beyond 15
 
Low Carb Diet Growth Strategies 16
 
Chapter 1 The US Diet Market Landscape 18
 
Summary 18
 
Introduction 19
 
Key findings 19
 
Dieting in the United States 20
 
Overview 20
 
Ever more homogeneous dietary habits and lifestyles 20
 
Consumer weight profile 21
 
Consumer health profile 22
 
Metabolic syndrome 22
 
Diabetes 22
 
The cyclical nature of dieting 25
 
Popular diets by type 25
 
Low carb diets 26
 
Low fat diets 27
 
Other diets 27
 
Diet support groups 28
 
Individual Dieting 29
 
The weight-loss industry 29
 
Low carb dieting 30
 
The original low carb diet 31
 
The Atkins Advantage 31
 
Consumer segmentations 32
 
Consumer dietary habits by type 32
 
Dedicated low carb lifestylers 33
 
Flexible low carb lifestylers 34
 
Consumer perception of the low carb lifestyle 35
 
Conclusions 36
 
Chapter 2 Drivers and Dynamics of The Diet
 
Market 38
 
Summary 38
 
Introduction 38
 
Key findings 39
 
Market size 39
 
Market segments 40
 
Snacks 40
 
Soft Drinks 42
 
Dairy 43
 
Bakery 45
 
Confectionery 46
 
Prepared meals 47
 
Strengths and weaknesses of the low carb trend 49
 
The strengths… 49
 
Manufacturer survival 49
 
Prevalence of flexible dieters 49
 
Scientific findings do not refute low carb benefits 50
 
A new alternative 50
 
…and the weaknesses 50
 
Market saturation 50
 
Potential lack of scientific support 50
 
Decrease in efficacy and/or success stories 50
 
Conclusions 51
 
Chapter 3 The US Diet Consumer 54
 
Summary 54
 
Introduction 54
 
Key findings 55
 
Consumer profile 55
 
Segmentation by weight 55
 
Motivated to get thin 56
 
Consumer survey 57
 
Dieting population profile 57
 
Consumer behavior 59
 
Willpower diminishes throughout the day 59
 
Only Low Carb Dieters interested in carbohydrate intake 60
 
True Low Carb Dieters are few and far between 62
 
Understanding consumers’ food choices 62
 
Understanding consumers’ drink choices 64
 
Consumer drivers 66
 
Personal relationships drive consumers’ diet choices 66
 
Taste and price drive the consumer 67
 
Taste is a barrier for attracting new low carb consumers 69
 
Conclusions 69
 
Chapter 4 Competitive Analysis of Major
 
Low Carb Brands 72
 
Summary 72
 
Introduction 72
 
Key findings 73
 
Manufacturer identification 73
 
Low carb manufacturers 73
 
Larger companies weigh in on the low carb trend 74
 
Competition among low carb manufacturers 76
 
Changing the landscape of the low carb market 80
 
Major CPGs manufacturers entering the market: a lesson from
 
organics 81
 
Low carb new product development: diversifying products 82
 
Low carb as a scapegoat 82
 
Case Study: Atkins Nutritionals 83
 
A history of Atkins Nutritionals 83
 
Atkins food and drink products 85
 
Partnerships and the pyramid 86
 
The future for Atkins 86
 
Case Study: Keto Foods 87
 
Reformulating favorite foods 88
 
Research and development are key business areas 89
 
Future growth 89
 
Industry survey 90
 
The low carb market is an opportunity for growth 90
 
Manufacturers’ forecasts for low carb diets 91
 
Comparison to the low fat trend 92
 
Future market drivers 94
 
Endorsements and brand awareness 96
 
Drivers contributing to product success 96
 
The low carb marketplace 97
 
Price premiums are high 97
 
Price premiums as a barrier to market growth 99
 
Low carb ingredients and product formulation 99
 
Marketing a low carb product 101
 
Conclusions 101
 
Chapter 5 Medical & Regulatory
 
Environment 104
 
Summary 104
 
Introduction 104
 
Key findings 105
 
The science behind dieting 105
 
The low fat and low carb theories 106
 
The low fat theory 106
 
The low carb theory 107
 
The low fat and low carb trends 108
 
The low fat trend 108
 
The low carb trend 109
 
The glycemic index 109
 
Low carbohydrate studies 110
 
Short-term studies 111
 
Long term studies 113
 
Government 114
 
The Food Guide Pyramid 114
 
Atkins and the Food Pyramid 115
 
The FDA and nutrition labels 115
 
Low Carb Claims and Nutrition Labels 118
 
Regulating organics 119
 
Conclusions 120
 
Chapter 6 The Future of Low Carb Dieting
 
and Beyond 122
 
Summary 122
 
Introduction 122
 
Key findings 123
 
Rapid growth of low carb bakery, snacks and prepared meals 123
 
The rapid growth of the bakery category 124
 
Guilt-free snacking 125
 
Low carb frozen meals will appeal to busy consumers 126
 
Increased market consolidation 126
 
Distribution and shelf space 127
 
Market consolidation 127
 
The importance of “Buy-in” of Healthful Eaters and healthcare referrals 128
 
Internalizing the low carb message 128
 
Medical factors 129
 
The next “big thing” - five years away 129
 
Industry and consumer components necessary for significant trends 130
 
Increased media coverage of low carb weight loss 131
 
High levels of controversy 132
 
A charismatic spokesman 134
 
Development of ingredients and improved product taste 135
 
A mature food and beverage industry 136
 
The “coolness” factor 137
 
The promise of a quick fix 139
 
Scientific logic that makes sense to the layman 140
 
Chapter 7 Low Carb Diet Growth Strategies 142
 
Summary 142
 
Introduction 142
 
Key findings 143
 
Improve the taste, competitiveness and appeal 143
 
Product formulation and taste 143
 
Reducing price premiums 144
 
Target evening eating occasions 145
 
Brand building and preparation for strategic alliances and acquisitions 145
 
Small, niche low carb companies 145
 
Large CPG manufacturers 146
 
Education through marketing partnerships 146
 
Create wider appeal through marketing campaigns 146
 
Partner with healthcare professionals 147
 
Develop community outreach programs 148
 
Conclusions 149
 
List of Figures
 
Figure 3.1: US population by BMI category, by gender, %, 2002-2007 56
 
Figure 3.2: Ranked meal occasion by ease of diet adherence, by consumer group, % (where 1 =
 
easiest and 6 = hardest) 59
 
Figure 3.3: Consumption changes made when attempting weight loss/maintenance, by consumer
 
group, % respondents who answered “always” 61
 
Figure 3.4: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by food category, %
 
respondents 64
 
Figure 3.5: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by drinks category, %
 
respondents 65
 
Figure 4.6: Low carb beer and malternative entrants, 2004 77
 
Figure 4.7: “Mid-carb” soda entrants, 2004 78
 
Figure 4.8: Reduced-carb orange juices, by brand, 2004 79
 
Figure 4.9: Atkins food product examples, 2004 84
 
Figure 4.10: Atkins-certified co-venture examples, 2004 86
 
Figure 4.11: Keto food product examples, 2004 88
 
Figure 4.12: Industry perception of low carb trend, by importance, % respondents 91
 
Figure 4.13: Manufacturer opinion of low fat and low carb consumers and purchases now and in
 
five years, % respondents 94
 
Figure 4.14: Industry perceptions of low carb consumer drivers, by importance, % respondents 95
 
Figure 5.15: Glycemic index certification symbol 110
 
Figure 5.16: Proposed changes to nutrition labels, 2004 118
 
Figure 6.17: Market size, by category, $bn, 2003-2008 125
 
Figure 6.18: USDA Food Guide Pyramid, 2003 132
 
Figure 6.19: Atkins Food Guide Pyramid, 2004 134
 
Figure 6.20: Consumer groups and product attributes, by degrees of “coolness” 138
 
List of Tables
 
Table 1.1: Prevalence of overweight and obesity, 2002-2007 21
 
Table 1.2: Prevalence of diabetes, by type, (million), 2003-2009 24
 
Table 1.3: Risk factors associated with being overweight and obese 24
 
Table 1.4: Breakdown of the weight-loss industry, by category 30
 
Table 1.5: Consumer segmentation, by dieting/lifestyle type 33
 
Table 1.6: Consumer perception of the low carb diet, by “agree completely” and “agree
 
somewhat,” by consumer group (% respondents) 35
 
Table 2.7: U.S. low carb food and beverage market value, by category, ($m), 1998-2008 40
 
Table 2.8: Growth of low carb snacks market, ($m), 1998-2008 40
 
Table 2.9: Low carb product introductions, snacks category 42
 
Table 2.10: Growth of low carb soft drinks market, ($m), 1998-2008 42
 
Table 2.11: Growth of low carb dairy market, ($m), 1998-2008 43
 
Table 2.12: Low carb product introductions, dairy category 44
 
Table 2.13: Growth of low carb bakery market, ($m), 1998-2008 45
 
Table 2.14: Low carb product introductions, bakery category 46
 
Table 2.15: Growth of low carb confectionery market, ($m), 1998-2008 46
 
Table 2.16: Low carb product introductions, confectionery category 47
 
Table 2.17: Growth of low carb prepared meals market, ($m), 1998-2008 47
 
Table 2.18: Low carb product introductions, prepared meals category 48
 
Table 3.19: Main reason for dieting, by gender, % respondents 57
 
Table 3.20: Consumer groups, by age, % respondents 58
 
Table 3.21: Consumption changes made when attempting weight loss/maintenance, by consumer
 
group, % respondents who answered “always” 60
 
Table 3.22: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by food category, %
 
respondents 63
 
Table 3.23: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by drinks category, %
 
respondents 65
 
Table 3.24: Ranked influencing factors in dieting choice, by consumer group, (where 1 = strongest
 
and 8 = weakest) 66
 
Table 3.25: Ranked purchasing priorities, by consumer group (where 1 = strongest and 10 =
 
weakest) 68
 
Table 4.26: Low carb companies and respective product categories, 2003 74
 
Table 4.27: Multinational companies and respective new low carb product introductions, through
 
June 2004 75
 
Table 4.28: New product introductions, #, 1999-2003 82
 
Table 4.29: Manufacturer opinion of low fat and low carb consumers and purchases now and in
 
five years, % respondents 93
 
Table 4.30: Industry perceptions of low carb consumer drivers, by importance, % respondents 95
 
Table 4.31: Ranking of manufacturer vs. consumer preferences 97
 
Table 4.32: Low carb price premium examples, 2004 98
 
Table 4.33: Sweetener substitute glossary 100
 
Table 5.34: Average reduction in weight and heart disease, and dropout rate, by specific diet, %
 
112
 
Table 5.35: Pounds lost, by time on diet, low carb vs. conventional dieting, 2003 113
 
Table 5.36: FDA guidelines 116
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