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International Tourism Forecasts
Market Report, December 2005, 2245  €


Description

About this reportThe strong level of growth in international tourism expected by the WTO for 2004 has been attributed to three major factors: pent up demand after years of restrictions and difficulties, an improved international political situation and a stronger economy.
Leisure travel has been growing at a superior rate to that of business, but this sector is expected to become more competitive once again.
After a global shift towards intra-regional, short-haul travel, necessitated by economic difficulties and security fears, the long-haul market is expected to display the highest rates of expansion in the coming decade.Against this background of global recovery, these long-term tourism forecasts, the ninth set which have been published by TTI, project global travel to the year 2020 from a base year of 2002 for each individual destination or outbound market.
Based upon the most recent comparable data available, Mintel identifies the world’s current 30 leading global tourism generators.
These trip forecasts are then used as a basis for estimating worldwide future international demand for tourism, with future tourism levels for the 20 leading individual destinations outlined.
Designed for travel and tourism professionals, this report combines the latest tourism data from the most authoritative sources and Mintel's own unique, independent analysis.
It offers a level of market-explanation that can help create focused marketing and shape effective tourism policy at the highest level.


Sommaire
 
Contents
 

 
Chapter 1 – Introduction to the Forecasts
 
World tourism in 2004 and beyond
 
The post-Millennial slump
 
Figure 1: International tourist arrivals by region, 1980-2003
 
Regional performances, 1980-2003
 
Figure 2: Average annual growth rates in worldwide arrivals, 1980-2003
 
Figure 3: Africa average annual growth rates in arrivals, 1980-2003
 
Figure 4: Average annual growth rates in Asia-Pacific arrivals, 1980-2003
 
Figure 5: Europe average annual growth rates in arrivals, 1980-2003
 
Figure 6: Americas: Average annual growth rates in arrivals, 1980-2003
 
Figure 7: Middle East: Average annual growth rates in arrivals, 1980-2003
 
2004: a return to growth?
 
Regional performances, 2004
 
Overall aims and approach
 
Report structure
 
Outbound trips and major markets
 
Figure 8: Top 30 tourism generating countries by trips abroad, 2002
 
Intra-regional and long-haul trips
 
Propensity to travel
 
The 20 main destination countries
 
Figure 9: Top 20 destinations by international arrivals, 2002
 
Chapter 2: Summary of the Forecasts
 
Overall growth patterns
 
Trips by region of origin
 
Figure 10: Tourist arrivals by generating region, 1990-2002
 
Trips by region of destination
 
Figure 11: International tourist arrivals by region, 1995-2020
 
Trips by origin countries
 
Figure 12: International outbound trips for 30 main origin countries, 2000-20
 
Figure 13: Average growth in international outbound trips for 30 main origin countries, 1980-2020
 
Arrivals at destination countries
 
Figure 14: International tourist arrivals by 20 main destination countries, 1980-2020
 
Figure 15: Average growth in international tourist arrivals by 20 main destination countries, 1980-2020
 
Tourism spending
 
Figure 16: Trip-spending for the 30 main origin countries at current prices, 2002 and 2020
 
Chapter 3: Forecasts by Origin Country
 
Travel from the 30 main origin countries
 
Travel from Australia
 
Figure 17: Main international destinations for Australia, 1990-2002
 
Figure 18: Average growth in international outbound trips from Australia, 1980-2020
 
Figure 19: Outbound trips from Australia and arrivals by destination, 2000-20
 
Travel from Austria
 
Figure 20: Main international destinations for Austria, 1980-2002
 
Figure 21: Average growth in international outbound trips from Austria, 1980-2020
 
Figure 22: Forecast international outbound trips from Austria, 2000-2020
 
Travel from Belgium
 
Figure 23: Main international destinations for Belgium, 1980-2002
 
Figure 24: Average growth in international outbound trips from Belgium, 1980-2020
 
Figure 25: Forecast international outbound trips from Belgium, 2000-2020
 
Travel from Canada
 
Figure 26: Main international destinations for Canada, 1980-2002
 
Figure 27: Average growth in international outbound trips from Canada, 1980-2020
 
Figure 28: Forecast international outbound trips from Canada, 2000-20
 
Travel from China
 
Figure 29: Main international destinations for China, 1980-2002
 
Figure 30: Average growth in international outbound trips from China, 1980-2020
 
Figure 31: Forecast international outbound trips from China, 2000-20
 
Travel from Czech Republic
 
Figure 32: Main international destinations for the Czech Republic, 1990-2002
 
Figure 33: Average growth in international outbound trips from the Czech Republic, 1980-2020
 
Figure 34: Forecast international outbound trips from the Czech Republic, 2000-20
 
Travel from Denmark
 
Figure 35: Main international destinations for Denmark, 1980-2002
 
Figure 36: Average growth in international outbound trips from Denmark, 1980-2020
 
Figure 37: Forecast international outbound trips from Denmark, 2000-20
 
Travel from Finland
 
Figure 38: Main international destinations for Finland, 1980-2002
 
Figure 39: Average growth in international outbound trips from Finland, 1980-2020
 
Figure 40: Forecast international outbound trips from Finland, 2000-20
 
Travel from France
 
Figure 41: Main international destinations for France, 1980-2002
 
Figure 42: Average growth in international outbound trips from France, 1980-2020
 
Figure 43: Forecast international outbound trips from France, 2000-20
 
Travel from Germany
 
Figure 44: Main international destinations for Germany, 1980-2002
 
Figure 45: Average growth in international outbound trips from Germany, 1980-2020
 
Figure 46: Forecast international outbound trips from Germany, 2000-20
 
Travel from Hong Kong
 
Figure 47: Main international destinations for Hong Kong, 1980-2002
 
Figure 48: Average growth in international outbound trips from Hong Kong, 1980-2020
 
Figure 49: Forecast international outbound trips from Hong Kong, 2000-20
 
Travel from Hungary
 
Figure 50: Main international destinations for Hungary, 1990-2002
 
Figure 51: Average growth in international outbound trips from Hungary, 1990-2020
 
Figure 52: Forecast international outbound trips from Hungary, 2000-20
 
Travel from Ireland
 
Figure 53: Main international destinations for the Republic of Ireland, 1980-2002
 
Figure 54: Average growth in international outbound trips from the Republic of Ireland, 1980-2020
 
Figure 55: Forecast international outbound trips from the Republic of Ireland, 2000-20
 
Travel from Italy
 
Figure 56: Main international destinations for Italy, 1980-2002
 
Figure 57: Average growth in international outbound trips from Italy, 1980-2020
 
Figure 58: Forecast international outbound trips from Italy, 2000-20
 
Travel from Japan
 
Figure 59: Main international destinations for Japan, 1980-2002
 
Figure 60: Average growth in international outbound trips from Japan, 1980-2020
 
Figure 61: Forecast international outbound trips from Japan, 2000-20
 
Travel from Mexico
 
Figure 62: Main international destinations for Mexico, 1980-2002
 
Figure 63: Average growth in international outbound trips from Mexico, 1980-2020
 
Figure 64: Forecast international outbound trips from Mexico, 2000-20
 
Travel from the Netherlands
 
Figure 65: Main international destinations for the Netherlands, 1980-2002
 
Figure 66: Average growth in international outbound trips from the Netherlands, 1980-2020
 
Figure 67: Forecast international outbound trips from the Netherlands, 2000-20
 
Travel from Poland
 
Figure 68: Main international destinations for Poland, 1990-2002
 
Figure 69: Average growth in international outbound trips from Poland, 1990-2020
 
Figure 70: Forecast international outbound trips from Poland, 2000-20
 
Travel from Romania
 
Figure 71: Main international destinations for Romania, 1990-2002
 
Figure 72: Average growth in international outbound trips from Romania, 1995-2020
 
Figure 73: Forecast international outbound trips from Romania, 2000-20
 
Travel from the Russian Federation
 
Figure 74: Main international destinations for the Russian Federation, 1995-2002
 
Figure 75: Average growth in international outbound trips from the Russian Federation, 1995-2020
 
Figure 76: Forecast international outbound trips from the Russian Federation, 2000-20
 
Travel from Saudi Arabia
 
Figure 77: Main international destinations for Saudi Arabia, 1995-2002
 
Figure 78: Average growth in international outbound trips from Saudi Arabia, 1980-2020
 
Figure 79: Forecast international outbound trips from Saudi Arabia, 2002-20
 
Travel from South Korea
 
Figure 80: Main international destinations for South Korea, 1980-2002
 
Figure 81: Average growth in international outbound trips from South Korea, 1980-2020
 
Figure 82: Forecast international outbound trips from South Korea, 2000-20
 
Travel from Spain
 
Figure 83: Main international destinations for Spain, 1980-2002
 
Figure 84: Average growth in international outbound trips from Spain, 1980-2020
 
Figure 85: Forecast international outbound trips from Spain, 2000-20
 
Travel from Sweden
 
Figure 86: Main international destinations for Sweden, 1980-2002
 
Figure 87: Average growth in international outbound trips from Sweden, 1980-2020
 
Figure 88: Forecast international outbound trips from Sweden, 2000-20
 
Travel from Switzerland
 
Figure 89: Main international destinations for Switzerland, 1980-2002
 
Figure 90: Average growth in international outbound trips from Switzerland, 1980-2020
 
Figure 91: Forecast international outbound trips from Switzerland, 2000-20
 
Travel from Taiwan
 
Figure 92: Main international destinations for Taiwan, 1980-2002
 
Figure 93: Average growth in international outbound trips from Taiwan, 1980-2020
 
Figure 94: Forecast international outbound trips from Taiwan, 2000-20
 
Travel from Turkey
 
Figure 95: Main international destinations for Turkey, 1990-2002
 
Figure 96: Average growth in international outbound trips from Turkey, 1990-2020
 
Figure 97: Forecast international outbound trips from Turkey, 2000-20
 
Travel from the Ukraine
 
Figure 98: Main international destinations for the Ukraine, 1995-2002
 
Figure 99: Average growth in international outbound trips from the Ukraine, 1995-2020
 
Figure 100: Forecast international outbound trips from the Ukraine, 2000-20
 
Travel from the UK
 
Figure 101: Main international destinations for the UK, 1980-2002
 
Figure 102: Average growth in international outbound trips from the UK, 1980-2020
 
Figure 103: Forecast international outbound trips from the UK, 2000-20
 
Travel from the US
 
Figure 104: Main international destinations for the US, 1980-2002
 
Figure 105: Average growth in international outbound trips from the US, 1980-2020
 
Figure 106: Forecast international outbound trips from the US, 2000-20
 
Chapter 4: Travel To Destination Countries
 

 
Travel to Austria
 
Figure 107: International arrivals in Austria, 1995-2002
 
Figure 108: Forecast international arrivals for Austria, 1980-2020
 
Travel to Canada
 
Figure 109: International arrivals in Canada, 1995-2002
 
Figure 110: Forecast international arrivals for Canada, 1980-2020
 
Travel to China
 
Figure 111: International arrivals in China, 1995-2002
 
Figure 112: Forecast international arrivals for China, 1995-2020
 
Travel to France
 
Figure 113: International arrivals in France, 1995-2002
 
Figure 114: Forecast international arrivals for France, 1980-2020
 
Travel to Germany
 
Figure 115: International arrivals in Germany, 1995-2002
 
Figure 116: Forecast international arrivals for Germany, 1980-2020
 
Travel to Greece
 
Figure 117: International arrivals in Greece, 1995-2002
 
Figure 118: Forecast international arrivals for Greece, 1980-2020
 
Travel to Hong Kong
 
Figure 119: International arrivals in Hong Kong, 1995-2002
 
Figure 120: Forecast international arrivals for Hong Kong, 1990-2020
 
Travel to Hungary
 
Figure 121: International arrivals in Hungary, 1995-2002
 
Figure 122: Forecast international arrivals for Hungary, 1980-2020
 
Travel to Italy
 
Figure 123: International arrivals in Italy, 1995-2002
 
Figure 124: Forecast international arrivals for Italy, 1980-2020
 
Travel to Malaysia
 
Figure 125: International arrivals in Malaysia, 1995-2002
 
Figure 126: Forecast international arrivals for Malaysia, 1980-2020
 
Travel to Mexico
 
Figure 127: International arrivals in Mexico, 1995-2002
 
Figure 128: Forecast international arrivals for Mexico, 1980-2020
 
Travel to the Netherlands
 
Figure 129: International arrivals in the Netherlands, 1995-2002
 
Figure 130: Forecast international arrivals for the Netherlands, 1980-2020
 
Travel to Poland
 
Figure 131: International arrivals in Poland, 1995-2002
 
Figure 132: Forecast international arrivals for Poland, 1980-2020
 
Travel to Portugal
 
Figure 133: International arrivals in Portugal, 1995-2002
 
Figure 134: Forecast international arrivals for Portugal, 1980-2020
 
Travel to Spain
 
Figure 135: International arrivals in Spain, 1995-2002
 
Figure 136: Forecast international arrivals for Spain, 1980-2020
 
Travel to Switzerland
 
Figure 137: International arrivals in Switzerland, 1995-2002
 
Figure 138: Forecast international arrivals for Switzerland, 1980-2020
 
Travel to Thailand
 
Figure 139: International arrivals in Thailand, 1995-2002
 
Figure 140: Forecast international arrivals for Thailand, 1980-2020
 
Travel to Turkey
 
Figure 141: International arrivals in Turkey, 1990-2002
 
Figure 142: Forecast international arrivals for Turkey, 1990-2020
 
Travel to the United Kingdom
 
Figure 143: International arrivals in the UK, 1990-2002
 
Figure 144: Forecast international arrivals for the United Kingdom, 1980-2020
 
Travel to the US
 
Figure 145: International arrivals in the US, 1995-2002
 
Figure 146: Forecast international arrivals for the US, 1980-2020
 
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