Executive SummaryFibre-to-the-Home is undoubtedly the next development in telecommunications (and broadcasting) infrastructure.
Once the 1st and 2nd generation broadband networks are starting to reach penetration levels of 20%, the pressure on the national infrastructure will start to grow.
Video based communication will be the killer applications on these networks.
Access will be a key issue and eventually through fragmentation of the incumbents and/or regulatory reform, structural separation will take place between the basic infrastructure and the retail activities.However, the technological resilience of the copper-based network in the wake of broadband has been a setback for the earlier FttH deployment.
It is most unlikely that countries with subdued infrastructure-based competition will undertake significant large-scale commercial roll-outs in the near future.
Most initial FttH roll-outs are now concentrating on their DSL extensions.
Green field developments and niche markets will be the way forward.
Other opportunities exist for developers, cities and states/provinces, who see FttH as an important infrastructure development and, as such, are prepared to take the lead in FttH roll-outs.
Roll outs in Asia is bucking the trend.In these countries, governments have been instrumental in the development of fibre infrastructure, they have been assisted by the fact slowly these deployments are becoming more cost effective to install the connections and ‘light up’ the FttH.
Countries such as Iceland, Japan, Korea, Singapore and Sweden have been most progressive - already installing extensive fibre connections to neighbourhoods or homes.
Japan and Korea are in the process of a nationwide rollout of fibre optic cables.
In Iceland, Lina.Net together with Ericsson, has established a residential fibre network capable of delivering speeds of up to 100Mb/s.
Furthermore the market in Japan has now been lifted to a level that competition is now driving fibre further into the market.
It will also be interesting to see if the commitment from US telcos such as SBC and Verizon are going to eventuate and when.One of the most likely technologies that will bring us to the next generation of broadband is the 1972 developed Ethernet system from Rank Xerox.
This has been further developed to facilitate the requirements of high-speed data, and so-called Gigabit Ethernet will be the preferred network technology of the new carriers that are emerging around the world.
But we are not there yet.
It will bring network costs down by 60%, but deployment is capital intensive and problems such as scalability still need to be sorted out.
The real test however, will be the correct timing and developing the right business models.
Telcos are still nervous about this.